The winter storm expected to pass over Isle of Wight and Surry counties over the next two days isn’t expected to break any snowfall records, but could come close.

The National Weather Service has revised upward its forecasted accumulation from a low-pressure system expected to develop Wednesday, Feb. 19, and lift northeast up the coast overnight into Thursday. The forecast as of Tuesday morning called for 8 inches to a foot of snow across Hampton Roads starting Wednesday morning.

Isle of Wight County Schools announced mid-afternoon on Feb. 18 that it would close to students and staff on Feb. 19

“In addition, all school activities and events are also canceled,” the division said in its statement. “Teachers shared work with students today to be completed should IWCS remain closed for an extended period of time.  More information on asynchronous work will be shared with families as part of any announcements regarding school closures for Thursday and/or Friday.”

The bulk of the snow is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, though a burst of snow is possible between 7 a.m. and noon on Thursday, according to the NWS.

The “highest amounts will be the Southside Hampton Roads,” said NWS Meteorologist Larry Brown.

Locally, Isle of Wight averaged 11 inches of snow on Dec. 26, 2004, though parts of Surry only saw 2 inches, according to reporting that year by The Smithfield Times. Isle of Wight saw another post-Christmas storm six years later that began with a few flurries on Christmas Day and by Dec. 27 had left residents digging out from 13.2 inches. The same storm left roughly 8.5 inches across Surry County.

According to Brown, the Norfolk metropolitan area set a monthly snowfall record in February 1989 with 24.4 inches from two separate snowstorms over 28 days. The top three snow events from a single storm all brought more than a foot of accumulation to Hampton Roads.

“We’re not currently forecasting a record, but it’s going to be significant,” Brown said

The city of Norfolk’s website states its biggest snowstorm on record came Dec. 27-28, 1892, when 18.6 inches fell over three days. The second-highest snow event, according to Brown, came in 1989 when the city saw 15.4 inches over three days, followed by a storm in 2010 that brought 14.2 inches and one in 1980 that brought 13.7 inches.

The March 1-2, 1980, storm is now known as the “Circus Blizzard” for having trapped 2,300 people attending the Ringling Bros. and Barnum and Bailey Circus inside Norfolk’s Scope arena, according to Channel 13 News. The winter of 1979-80 was the snowiest on record, with just under 42 inches from October through April.

The so-called Circus Blizzard resulted in Isle of Wight County Schools seeing its fifth snow-related closure that year, necessitating changes to the school calendar to meet the state-required 180 days of instructional time. Isle of Wight has similarly seen four separate full-day closures for snow this year since January. Surry County Public Schools has had five weather-related closures since January.

It’s a sharp change from the prior two years, when Isle of Wight went two consecutive winters without any snow accumulation and IWCS declared “snow days” in May to make up for the extra time built into those year’s school calendars.

The Virginia Department of Transportation began pre-treating roads on Feb. 18 and warned motorists to be mindful of snow plows in the days ahead.

“Given potential impacts, VDOT snow operations could last for multiple days,” VDOT said in a news release. “Motorists should monitor their local forecasts, plan travels around the weather, and stay off the roads once the storm arrives. The patience and cooperation of travelers remaining off the roads during and following the storm is critical for crews to operate safely and efficiently.”

The NWS has issued a winter storm warning effective 10 a.m. Wednesday through 6 p.m. Thursday, which warns of heavy snow coupled with winds gusting as high as 30 mph. 

Brown said the current forecast for Southside Hampton Roads calls for an average 10 inches.

Areas of Surry closer to Claremont and the Prince George County border had a lower expected total of six to eight inches as of the Tuesday morning forecast. The NWS wars travel will be difficult to impossible over portions of the area Wednesday and Thursday with isolated power outages possible.

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 3:06 p.m. on Feb. 18 to note Isle of Wight County Schools would close Feb. 19.