The same consultant working with Isle of Wight County to project its population growth over the next 20 years has been retained by the county’s School Board to generate similar long-term enrollment estimates.

The School Board voted unanimously on March 13 to select Bethesda, Maryland-based TischlerBise as its preferred vendor to generate a “student yield analysis.”

TischlerBise was the second-lowest, at $76,200, of three firms to submit bids in response to the school division’s request for quotes. The other two bidders were Tampa, Florida-based MGT at $99,532 and Dayton, Ohio-based Woolpert, formerly Cooperative Strategies, at $56,500.

“While Woolpert initially offers a lower base price, their quote does not account for the additional costs associated with selecting all available options, reimbursable expenses, and standard hourly rates,” said Isle of Wight County Schools spokeswoman Lynn Briggs. “When factoring in these variables, the overall cost becomes less predictable. On the other hand, both Tischler Bise and MGT provide fixed, all-inclusive pricing, ensuring greater cost certainty. However, MGT is the most expensive option, making it less viable for selection. Given these considerations, Tischler Bise presents the best balance of cost efficiency and comprehensive service.”

Isle of Wight County separately contracted with TischlerBise in 2024 to calculate updated growth projections through 2040 for a five-year update of the county’s 2020 “Envisioning the Isle” comprehensive plan. TischlerBise, at the time of the 2020 plan’s writing, estimated Isle of Wight would see its population grow 0.83% annually, though differing estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper center show the growth rate was closer to 2% from 2021 through 2023. The surge appears to have slowed in 2024, with Weldon Cooper’s data as of July 1 of that year showing only a half-percent increase since the same date in 2023.

Last year, Weldon Cooper projected Isle of Wight County Schools’ enrollment would remain relatively flat through 2029, in stark contrast with a spring 2023 study by Cooperative Strategies that estimated more than 1,000 new students would enroll during the buildout of more than a dozen planned housing developments. If that projection pans out, it would mean a roughly 18% increase from the division’s 2024-25 enrollment of just over 5,500 students. Cooperative Strategies merged with Woolpert in August 2023.

The Weldon Cooper data, by contrast, looked only at Isle of Wight’s year-over-year enrollment to date and its birth rate, not building permits.

Deputy Superintendent Christopher Coleman, in January, said it could be beneficial for the division to join the county in working with TischlerBise to avoid another round of differing projections.

TischlerBise President Carson Bise, who made a proposal to the School Board in January, said his firm could build on the past demographic studies by coming up with a new system that would age current students through the school system, as well as take into account birth rates and new growth, to develop a 20-year public facilities plan that would identify options for new and expanded schools based on where enrollment is increasing.

The contracted work includes the firm mapping completed, in-progress and approved but unbuilt residential subdivisions and advising on where new and expanded school facilities should be built. According to an addendum to the division’s contract with TischlerBise, this work would include “locational guidance” and “siting criteria” for those hypothetical expansions.

For example, the division has long planned to replace the 1960s-era Westside Elementary on West Main Street with a new school to be built on land opposite Turner Drive from the existing Smithfield High School and Smithfield Middle School campus. TischlerBise’s report would advise on whether the site is ideal for a new school based on current and projected enrollment and the locations from which those students would be arriving. School Board member John Collick questioned last fall whether the site would result in unnecessarily long bus rides for students.

“One of the big things with this report is going to be the projection not only of the school needs but the site criteria and that’s the expert opinions that we need to move forward,” Coleman said.

The addendum specifies TischlerBise is to provide a draft report to the School Board and a final report with mutually agreed-upon edits. TischlerBise representatives are contracted to present their findings at a future School Board meeting.