Two years after nearly returning to pre-pandemic enrollment, the number of students attending Isle of Wight County Schools is again on the decline.

It’s having an impact on the amount of state funding IWCS can expect to receive next school year.

IWCS began the 2019-20 school year with 5,630 students enrolled as of Sept. 30, according to data from the Virginia Department of Education’s school quality profiles website. By the same date in 2020 when Isle of Wight became one of the first Hampton Roads school divisions to reopen following a nearly six-month state-mandated closure aimed at slowing the early spread of COVID-19, it did so with 5,396 students, a drop of 4.1%, or 234 students.

Isle of Wight’s enrollment had returned to 5,619 by the start of the 2021-22 school year, and saw another increase of less than a quarter-percent, to 5,629 students, as of Sept. 30, 2022.

By the same date in 2023, Isle of Wight’s enrollment had fallen 0.6% to 5,594, and dropped another 74 students, or 1.3%, to 5,519 by the same date in 2024.

The fall 2024 total differs from figures included in a draft 2025-26 school year budget Superintendent Theo Cramer presented to the School Board in February that projected March 31 average daily membership, or ADM, of roughly 5,325, down about 100 students, or 1.3%, from the same date in 2024. The March 31 ADM measures the average daily enrollment for the preceding seven months divided by the number of school days.

According to IWCS spokeswoman Lynn Briggs, the school quality profiles data is a snapshot that includes K-12 students, preschoolers and others for whom IWCS is responsible, such as private placement. The March 31 total averages only K-12 students for which IWCS receives state funding.

The projected March 31 ADM reflects a roughly 2.4% drop from just over 5,450 students reported as of the same date in 2022 and 2023, the two years IWCS saw its highest post-pandemic spring enrollment.

Some of the decline is due to an uptick in the number of parents choosing to homeschool their children. According to division data, there were 231 homeschooled students in Isle of Wight during the 2019-20 school year. That number nearly doubled to 404 by 2020-21. It fell to 379 in 2021-22 but rose again to 386 in 2022-23, and had surged to 420 as of last fall.

Religious exemptions from compulsory attendance also increased from 34 to 45 from 2022 to 2024. Briggs said anecdotally there appears to also be an increase in families using online schooling alternatives but that’s not a figure IWCS tracks.

 

Budgetary impacts

Cramer’s 2025-26 budget proposal, which the School Board adopted on March 18, lists $22.3 million as having been budgeted at the start of the current school year, and a mid-year revision to $21.8 million, which amounts to a roughly half-million-dollar, or 2.2%, decrease. Briggs confirmed the reduction is tied to the drop in enrollment.

Cramer’s budget proposal projects basic aid will drop another roughly $700,000, or 3.4%, to $21.1 million at the start of the 2025-26 school year.

“The estimated decrease in basic aid is directly related to projected student enrollment,” Briggs said. “Isle of Wight County Schools is taking a conservative approach when estimating enrollment because it is easier to adjust the budget upward if enrollment exceeds expectations than to reduce it after funding has been allocated.”

It’s still a 12% increase over the $18.8 million in basic aid IWCS received during the 2023-24 school year.

Basic aid, according to Cramer’s budget proposal, includes funding for the minimum student-to-teacher ratios required by Virginia’s standards of quality, known as SOQ positions. IWCS received state funding for just under 327 SOQ instructional positions at the start of the current school year, but actually employs 378. These positions include teachers, librarians, counselors, reading specialists, teacher aides and principals.

Most Virginia school divisions exceed the SOQ staffing minimums and are responsible for funding 100% of the cost of those extra positions with local dollars. IWCS receives a lower share of state funds for SOQ due to having a higher “composite index” than most other Hampton Roads localities. The state funding formula measures a locality’s ability to pay based on the value of real estate, adjusted gross income of residents and taxable retail sales.

IWCS, in addition to its basic aid funding, receives an $8 million share of the state’s sales tax revenue. Cramer’s budget calls for IWCS to receive $8.6 million from sales taxes in 2025-26, an increase of just over $470,000, or 3%, above the $8.3 million listed in the mid-year revised budget for 2024-25. IWCS had initially expected $8.1 million at the start of 2024-25, which is what the division had received in sales taxes during the 2023-24 school year.

The division’s sales tax revenue is determined based on Isle of Wight County’s share of school-age children. The state has historically relied on the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center to produce this data annually.

 

Future needs

For the past two years, Weldon Cooper has ranked Isle of Wight among Virginia’s top 10 fastest-growing counties based on population growth since the 2020 Census, including but not limited to school-age residents. The trend appears to have tapered off in 2024, with data as of Jan. 27 showing 41,048 people living in Isle of Wight as of last July 1.

It’s only a half-percent increase over the same date in 2023. Isle of Wight saw 2% annual growth in 2022 and 2023 and may again if and when more than a dozen planned housing developments build out.

IWCS projections from October showed four of Isle of Wight’s five northern-end schools exceeding their ability to accommodate state-mandated maximum class sizes by the time five in-progress developments, seven approved but unbuilt subdivisions and three proposed developments, if approved, are completed.