Smithfield Town Councilman Darren Cutler wants data on the cumulative financial impact of every in-progress and proposed housing development in the town limits.

The Town Council voted unanimously with one abstention on June 3 to approve Cutler’s request to commission what he termed a town-specific “growth rate study” similar to the cost-benefit analysis the consulting firm TischlerBise recently provided to Isle of Wight County’s Planning Commission as part of a five-year review of the county’s 2020 comprehensive plan.

The county study concluded that if Isle of Wight continues to see its population grow 2% annually, as it did in 2022 and 2023, the increased tax revenue from new residential and commercial developments would fail to offset the added cost to the county’s schools and other public services in just over 10 years.

TischlerBise Vice President Julie Herlands presented her findings to the commission on April 8, modeling three scenarios, one based on a 0.8% annual residential growth rate, one assuming 2% and the third assuming 3%.

The 0.8% model was the only one to show a net positive ratio of tax revenue versus new costs from the influx. The 2% scenario, which also assumed 1% annual increases in nonresidential growth, projected 8,752 additional housing units and 20,224 more people by 2044, both reflecting nearly 50% increases. That influx is projected to bring just over 2,000 new jobs and over $420 million in additional county revenue over the next 20 years, but also cause a need for more than $427 million in additional funding for schools, parks and other services, resulting in a net $7.2 million deficit with costs beginning to exceed revenue sometime during or after 2036.

Herlands said at the April 8 meeting that her data did not show whether Smithfield or Windsor would see growth-related expenses exceed the revenue generated by each town’s share of the prospective housing subdivisions and commercial developments, which is why Cutler wants the town to fund its own study.

“We should research this considerably more before we make some final decisions on what may be our last large housing development in Smithfield just due to the land that we have available,” Cutler said.

Smithfield spans roughly 10.1 square miles, much of which is already developed. The 812-home Mallory Pointe subdivision at the former 500-acre Mallory Scott farm off Battery Park Road, which received rezoning approval in 2021, is currently building and selling homes in its first phase, which calls for 135 detached homes. The Town Council voted 6-1 in May to approve the 104-home Cottages at Battery development for 14 acres behind the Royal Farms gas station and convenience store, also off Battery Park Road. The town Planning Commission is reviewing plans for the proposed “Promontory,” which would add 239 homes and five commercial parcels along Benns Church Boulevard, and a reduced-density concept for the Grange at 10Main that proposes up to 119 homes, a hotel, restaurant, retail space and a permanent home for Smithfield Farmers Market at 57 acres at the western edge of the town’s historic district.

“It’s very clear that there is a bearing point and we need to have more information so we know what that breaking point is,” said Vice Mayor Bill Harris.

“Our schools are nearly at capacity,” said Cutler, referencing data Isle of Wight County Schools produced last fall showing four of its five northern-end schools would exceed capacity based on the maximum class sizes allowed by state law if and when 15 in-progress and approved Isle of Wight housing developments are completed. Some of the listed developments have since reduced their proposed density.

While Isle of Wight County funds its schools with local tax dollars, the two towns don’t. It would be among the key differences in the proposed town’s study and the county’s.

“We really don’t have any … direct input into our school system,” said Councilwoman Valerie Butler, who abstained from the vote.

Councilwoman Mary Ellen Bebermeyer, despite voting in favor of soliciting a quote for the proposed town growth study, said she wasn’t sold on the need to spend money on something that may “tell us what we already know, that the faster we grow, the more stress it’s going to put on our services.”

Town Attorney Bill Riddick said the town could potentially save on the cost of hiring a consultant by compiling data from each of the economic impact analyses developers are required to submit to the town’s planning and zoning staff rather than starting from scratch. 

“The raw data is there,” Riddick said.