The Western Tidewater Health District has reported 407 new COVID-19 cases in the 38 days since Virginia entered Phase II of Gov. Ralph Northam’s reopening plan, and two-thirds of them have been diagnosed within the past two weeks.

With Virginia now in Phase III, the district crossed a grim milestone this weekend — its 1,000th confirmed case of the virus. As of Monday, Western Tidewater’s rolling seven-day average for new cases stood at 27, the highest it’s been since the pandemic began.

Of the 273 cases reported since June 29 for all four localities that comprise the Western Tidewater Health District, 170 have come from Suffolk, 48 from Isle of Wight County, 29 from Southampton County and 26 from Franklin. Since the pandemic began, Suffolk has had 573 confirmed cases, Isle of Wight 226, Southampton 184, and Franklin 77. District-wide, 64 people have died, with Suffolk’s 42 accounting for 65% of that figure.

Southampton’s COVID-19 death toll since the pandemic began stands at 10, eight of which were reported just within the past two weeks. Prior to June 29, the county had held at just two COVID-19-related deaths since May 13. But this doesn’t necessarily mean all eight died within a two-week timeframe.

According to Health District Director Dr. Todd Wagner, the VDH is notified of a new COVID-19-related death when informed by a physician or when a person’s death certificate is reviewed and adjusted to reflect COVID-19 as the cause. With death certificates, this does not necessarily occur on the same date that person died. In fact, weeks can elapse between the date of a death and the date the VDH is notified that the death was COVID-19-related.

Wagner confirmed there were indeed some COVID-19-related deaths in the district over the past two weeks. Isle of Wight’s death toll currently stands at nine and Franklin’s at three, with each of the two localities reporting only one new death since the start of July.

Statewide, Virginia saw its record number of COVID-19 deaths reported in a single day — 57 — on May 27, followed by a steep decline in fatalities through mid-June. Now, deaths are once again trending upward, as are new diagnoses.

On July 13, Virginia reported 972 new confirmed cases statewide, its highest single-day increase since June 7. The state record for daily new cases is 1,615, which was set on May 26.

The Hampton Roads region as a whole has seen its average of daily cases more than triple during the past two weeks, particularly in Norfolk where 16.3% of all COVID-19 tests are coming back positive. Of the 972 new cases reported July 13, more than half are in Hampton Roads.

At a July 10 community COVID-19 testing event in Chesapeake, Gov. Ralph Northam warned that changes to his reopening plan may need to be made soon if these numbers continue to go up and if people continue to disregard state health guidelines.

“I hear people say we want to get our children back into school; I want to get our children back in school as well,” Northam said. “I want to get all the businesses opened up again. But we need to get this health crisis under control and behind us if we’re going to recover our economy.”

Where are Western Tidewater’s cases occurring?

Eight of the 12 outbreaks the VDH is currently tracking in its Western Tidewater Health District are tied to long-term care facilities. The most recent outbreak is at The Village at Woods Edge in Franklin.

There are also two outbreaks tied to correctional facilities. One of these — Deerfield in Southampton County — has 81 confirmed cases, 78 among inmates and three among staff. It remains unknown where the second correctional outbreak is or how many cases are tied to it, as all three lockup facilities in the health district say it isn’t them. The remaining two outbreaks are reported to be at congregate settings, which can refer to apartment complexes, places of employment, churches, event venues and other group settings — including houses and neighborhoods.

Of the 1,060 district-wide cases reported July 13, 436 are tied to one of these outbreaks. According to data from the VDH and the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, just under 300 of these 436 outbreak-associated cases are among residents or staff members at nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

This indicates 624 cases — more than 50% of the district’s total — are resulting from person-to-person spread among individuals who don’t live or work at the site of one of these outbreaks.

“We certainly see clustering of cases involving families and other close family contacts,” Wagner said. “We can assume there is closer contact in those family settings but we have no way of knowing exactly what they are doing in other settings or what precautions, if any, they are taking.”

He added that VDH investigations have also shown cases tied to people who have traveled recently to North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Florida, the latter of which set a single-day nationwide record on July 12 with more than 15,000 new cases.

Of Western Tidewater’s cases, 426 are Black, 242 are white, 41 are other or mixed race and 351 have no race reported. But so far, the VDH has no evidence linking Western Tidewater’s uptick to the Black Lives Matter protests that have taken place throughout the district since late May.

“Keep in mind that a large number of our residents that are tested are African American, so we would expect to see a higher percentage of positives from the overall number tested,” Wagner said. “In our testing venues, the difference in the percentage of positive cases between whites, African Americans and Latinos has not been statistically different.”

There likewise isn’t any direct evidence at present linking the spike in new infections to a particular gathering, such as at a beach or party.

“But certainly, larger gatherings do increase the risk of transmission, especially if social distancing isn’t performed,” Wagner warned.